The provincial referendum on switching to the single transferable vote (STV) electoral system is too close to predict according to an Angus Reid Strategies poll released last Saturday.
According to the poll, 53 per cent voters support switching to STV while 47 per cent would vote to keep the existing first past the post (FPTP) system.
Though the "yes" vote is still seven per cent shy of the 60 per cent required to pass, Hamish Marshall, research director for Angus Reid said the numbers were likely to climb as more voters make their decisions before going to the polls.
The poll surveyed 800 individuals in five regions of B.C. by phone and found the highest support for STV, at 63 per cent, was in the Island region, which included the Sunshine Coast.
The race has proponents and opponents of STV watching closely and working to get their message out.
"Our view within the campaign is that this is razor thin, assuming that you're holding us to a 60 per cent hurtle," said Jamie Deith, an STV proponent who has been campaigning for STV on the Coast and North Vancouver Island.
The poll did not question respondents on how well they understood STV, but only if they were aware of it. Eighty-three per cent said they were at least "moderately aware" of the referendum. But understanding STV itself is key to the referendum passing in the mind of Deith.
"We know that once people are well aware of the choices, they overwhelmingly support STV. We know that the people that vote to keep first past the post tend to be the ones that simply don't understand very much about the questions that's being asked," he said. "That's why we're looking forward to the last part of the campaign where people tend to pay more attention because they date is just that much closer."
Deith admitted that getting people to understand the new system has been a challenge in the campaign but, he said, interested voters can learn the pros and cons of the STV in about "10 to 15 minutes."
The "no" vote proponents are not resting on their technical lead or laurels though. Roberts Creek resident Rick Dignard, vice president of the No BC-STV Campaign Society, is confident that as people learn more about STV, they will be less convinced it is a good idea for B.C.
Dignard admitted people being confused by STV helps his cause, but it is far from the reason he disagrees with STV.
"There are a lot of other parts of the system that disadvantageous to our democracy in B.C., so it's not just that it's complicated. It's after the voting where the system has many downsides," he said. "The best thing for me was actually to get on-line and see how it worked in other countries."
Currently STV is used in Ireland, Malta and parts of Australia, where Dignard said democracies still struggle with the same challenges including governments being elected without securing the popular vote, voter alienation and so-called "safe seats."
Dignard said he is eager to see electoral reform, but does not believe STV is the right change.
Deith and Dignard debated STV in an open house at the Seniors Activity Centre in Sechelt on April 27.
Both were members of the Citizens Assembly on Electoral Reform, a group of randomly selected B.C. residents who studied electoral reform for one year and voted to recommend a change to the STV system. Dignard was one of a handful of voters in the assembly to vote against changing to the STV system.
Under STV the province would be divided into 20 multi-member ridings with candidates who are voted for in rank order. Only candidates with enough of the popular vote are sent to the legislature. Proponents argue it is a more representative and fairer system
Under FPTP, voters have one vote each to cast for their local representative. The one with the most votes in the riding becomes the MLA.
