So many of the products people use on a daily basis are made of wheat and grains, but that reliance could soon be problematic with increasing wheat shortages due to a variety of global and national factors.
Neil Clayton, manger of Claytons Heritage Market in Sechelt, said there have already been a number of flour price increases over the past eight months caused by shortages. Even though there have been minor increases in product costs, most of those increases have been absorbed, he said. However, that doesn't mean that future increases won't be passed down to the consumer. Clayton said there are a number of reasons for the growing shortage in wheat, which come down to areas where there has been drought, poor weather conditions, rising fuel costs and, here in Canada, a government move to encourage corn crops for ethanol fuel.
"It's grain crops as well, not just wheat," said Clayton. "Farmers are switching fields to corn for bio-fuel and jumping on the ethanol bandwagon."
He said this will eventually affect the price of feed for livestock like chickens and beef and drive those costs up, which in turn will drive up the cost of meat for consumers. Clayton said Canada, Australia, the United States, Russia and Europe - five of the top wheat producers - had weather problems affecting their yield, and there have been poor crops for the past three years mostly because of dry springs and wet summers. Another factor governing wheat prices is that while China produces the most wheat, it is also one of the fastest growing consumers of wheat products, Clayton said, a by-product of changing Asian culinary tastes. Clayton said he's not making a value judgment on globalization, but an observation on the risk factors involved in a global economy and the increasing nature of how supply and demand affects consumers across the board. He said where community members are most likely to see increases are in pasta and bread products, because wholesale industrial costs are going up. He said he's expecting a 20-kilogram bag of flour to go from the current $12 up to $27 within the next few months, and that will mean slight increases in some retail costs.
Wilson Creek Marketplace IGA owner Brian Stapleton said he hasn't made any major increases to his pricing and isn't expecting to. He agrees with Clayton that gas prices, floods, drought, severe weather and fewer crops being planted are all causes for the growing shortage.
Stapleton said he thinks new initiatives need to be looked at more carefully by local, provincial and federal governments. He said here on the Coast there has been substantial growth in a very short time, and while he doesn't believe that people should move here "and draw up the drawbridge behind them," he does think moderation and good planning are important to avoid trouble down the road. Stapleton said his example relates to the push towards bio-fuels without having an infrastructure or cohesive plan in place that takes into account what changing farming will do to consumers in the long term.
