Incumbent Liberal MP Patrick Weiler is projected to keep his seat and return to Ottawa under a second minority government led by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
It was a close race in the West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country riding, where leading candidates did not even expect to have a winner declared on election night.
After a “pins and needles” night and only a narrow gap between Weiler and Conservative John Weston, CBC called the race for Weiler around 10:30 p.m., even with 6,130 mail-in ballots left to be counted.
“Of course, it’s never official until it’s official but it does feel very, very good, and I think it shows that hard work pays off, running an honest campaign pays off,” Weiler said.
As of Tuesday morning, with 257 of 258 polls counted, Weiler had 19,424 votes or 34 per cent overall. Weston had 17,247 votes or 30 per cent. The NDP’s Avi Lewis had netted 14,833 votes (25 per cent) while the Green Party’s Mike Simpson and People’s Party of Canada’s (PPC) Doug Bebb trailed at 3,850 votes (seven per cent) and 2,178 votes (four per cent), respectively.
The Rhinoceros candidate, Gordon Jeffrey, was just shy of 100 votes and was followed by independent candidates Chris MacGregor and Terry Grimwood, who are both Sunshine Coast residents, with 70 and 46 votes respectively.
According to preliminary polling reports, 57,948 of 98,256 registered electors or 58.98 per cent turned out to vote in the riding, not including those who registered on election day. In 2019, there was a total of 65,315 votes and 95,395 registered electors in the riding.
Elections Canada has told the candidates the mail-in ballots won’t be counted until Wednesday or Thursday but Weiler said he believes his margin will only grow, in part because so many university students voted by mail when voting on campus was not an option.
“From what I understand from some of the exit polls done, people that did mail-in ballots are four times more likely to vote Liberal than Conservative. So, if it’s close, and it comes to mail-in ballots, I’d be more confident,” he said.
The vote does make political history in the riding – it’s the first time a Liberal candidate has been re-elected here. Weiler credited his campaign staff and volunteers for the feat.
“I’m just so proud of what our team accomplished,” he said.
Weiler said he had no qualms about sitting in another minority government, which he predicted will be productive with a fresh mandate when the new government is sworn in.
“We do have a lot of common ground with the Bloc, with the NDP, with the Greens and I’ve developed some great friendships and working relationships over that time,” he said. “I think this does kind of reset the clock and we’ll be able to kind of get things unstuck and get things done again.”
Weiler also acknowledged the strength of his competitors, and promised to represent their supporters in Parliament as well.
“I didn’t get 100 per cent of the vote. I am now the MP for everybody, even people that didn’t vote for me,” he said.
“That is a challenge that I take very seriously and a responsibility that I take very seriously. And I’m just really excited to be able to get back to work.”
While Weiler does not know yet when he will return to Ottawa, he said he will be reconnecting with people, including officials on the Sunshine Coast. For the Coast, Weiler said that infrastructure and building affordable housing are priorities. The Liberals will also pick up on items that were not passed before the summer, such as modernizing the Environmental Protection Act, bringing in new disability benefits, and some criminal justice reform.
Speaking to his supporters after the polls closed, Weston praised his volunteers for helping to knock on three times as many doors in the riding as the last Tory candidate did.
He also described the Conservatives’ platform as being the best, most compassionate and environmentally progressive one he’d even seen.
He too commended his “worthy team of opponents” for their respectful campaigns.
Weston said he was “forlorn” knowing the next government should be another Liberal minority.
“As people said time and again, this was an unnecessary election call in COVID when the country should have been focusing on other matters. I think it was very ill advised and selfish, and history will suggest that this was not a legacy moment for a prime minister,” Weston said.
“It concerns me that erodes respect for the institution of prime minister… A leader should be a healer and a unifier. This unnecessary election was not healing or unifying.”
While Weiler held a lead of more than 2,000 votes over him on Sept. 21, Weston said, “We’ve still got over 6,000 votes to count. So, not over till it’s over.”
Lewis said he was pleased with the NDP’s showing, doubling their 2019 vote share and setting a personal best in the riding.
“I said that it was always an uphill battle for the NDP in this riding in a first-time campaign, and that we’re building something. And I committed from the very beginning to run at least in two cycles,” he said. “As I go out and pick up signs and anxiously await the mail-in ballot results and do all of the wrap-up things for a really fast and big campaign, I’m feeling extremely buoyant.”
Lewis added that he would have liked two more weeks to campaign and continue to build momentum.
“You can’t assume that you’re going to flip a riding like this in one go starting from a cold start. I’m excited to represent this riding, and I believe I will one day,” Lewis said.
Although he declined to comment much on the national level, Lewis said the election was “a gruelling exercise to yield the same result” but added he is excited that the NDP will be able to hold the Liberal minority government to account, especially on their climate plan.
Lewis also offered his congratulations to Weiler. For now, the Halfmoon Bay resident will return to his associate professor position at the University of British Columbia’s department of geography.
For the Greens, the result was devastating – receiving only a third of the vote they did in 2019. It reflected a wider collapse in their popular vote share, nationally.
“It’s pretty obvious, I think, that we have some strong leadership and internal issues that we have to be able to face,” Simpson said. “We’re an opinionated lot. There’s no doubt about that but at some point, we also have to have the discipline to have some unity and work with leaders and so on.”
Simpson, an Elphinstone resident, said he will spend some time in his garden while he “chews on” the election’s results. There are many ways to be Green without being a candidate, he added, such as working in non-profit and continuing to tackle climate change causes. He said he was encouraged by supporters and the Greens’ ability to bring “nuance” to the political discourse.
Although poised to end the election in fifth place once again, Bebb said the PPC is in a better position for the next election, having increased support in the form of votes and volunteers since it was founded three years ago.
“It might take one or two more election cycles before we’re in a position to form a government that will put Canada first. And make no mistake, don’t be fooled by the media lies. The People’s Party is in it for a long haul. And we’re not about to surrender,” Bebb said.
In 2019, the Whistler resident took home 1.6 per cent of the vote or 1,010 ballots. The day after the 44th federal election, the preliminary results showed 3.8 per cent and more than 2,000 votes for the local PPC candidate. The PPC has yet to earn a seat in Parliament.
Since 2004, the riding has only ever been held by the Liberals and Conservatives minus a brief stint in 2007-08 when MP Blair Wilson was forced to quit the Liberal caucus amid a scandal. Weston served two terms with the Conservatives, from 2008 until 2015 when he was defeated by former mayor of West Vancouver Pamela Goldsmith-Jones. Weiler won in 2019 with 34.89 per cent of the vote. The Conservatives finished a little over eight points back with 26.71 per cent.
