Home sales in the Lower Mainland showed signs of improvement in June, remaining low but gaining traction as economic uncertainty eased and affordability improved, drawing in more buyers.
Multiple Listing Service (MLS) sales in the area, which spans Metro Vancouver and Abbotsford-Mission, reached 3,325 units. While this was 9.5 per cent lower than a year ago, it marked a narrower decline compared to the 19.5-per-cent drop seen in May. June’s sales were the fewest for that month since 2000, just shy of 2019 figures.
Sales flow showed mild momentum, with calculations pointing to a five per cent seasonally adjusted monthly gain, though still well below late 2024 and pre-pandemic levels. Data for Greater Vancouver indicates a more significant drop in apartment sales, down 16 per cent year over year, while other product types stabilized.
Many buyers held back earlier this year due to trade war uncertainty and risks to the job market. While the regional economy is less at risk, high-priced urban markets have experienced the sharpest sales reductions due to potential impacts on mortgage servicing. As uncertainty abated, buyer sentiment improved. Meanwhile, easing prices and mortgage rates also led to improved affordability, which likely boosted sales.
Nevertheless, the sales environment remains shallow, and excess supply persists. New listings rose five per cent year-over-year, and inventory continued to trend higher. Active listings increased 26.5 per cent year-over-year to 26,800 units. While monthly growth has slowed, the trend is the highest since 2013. The market continues to favour buyers, with a sales-to-active listing ratio of 12.4 per cent indicating ample housing choice. Adding to MLS inventory is an overhang and growing number of newly completed apartment condominiums that are finished but unsold.
The average price for units sold in the region reached $1.19 million during the month, up 1.2 per cent month over month (6.3 per cent seasonally adjusted). The year-over-year decline narrowed to four per cent from six per cent in May. This reflected stronger sales performance in core Metro Vancouver markets and a slower pickup in the lower-priced Fraser Valley region. The sales composition, leaning towards detached homes, also boosted average prices. The average price is about nine per cent off the 2022 peak. Further declines in home values are expected given the inventory overhang and economic weakness. However, improving affordability and significant demand on the sidelines are likely to draw in more buyers and stabilize prices.
Canada’s trade picture remains soft in May
Canada’s trade picture remained soft in May as the impact of tariffs on the economy persisted. Exports increased by 1.1 per cent in May to $60.8 billion, following an 11-per-cent decline in April. Imports decreased by 1.6 per cent to $66.7 billion. As a result, the trade deficit contracted from a record high of $7.6 billion in the prior month to $5.9 billion.
Exports to the U.S. continued to decline for a fourth straight month in May, down 0.9 per cent, following significant tariffs on Canadian goods. Imports from the U.S. dropped by 1.2 per cent. The proportion of exports to the U.S. also continued to shrink to 68.3 per cent, compared to the 2024 monthly average of 75.9 per cent. However, exports to other countries reached an all-time high, growing by 5.7 per cent.
Although provincial data is unadjusted for seasonality, British Columbia saw lower merchandise exports in May on a year-over-year basis. Exports continued to decline for the second consecutive month, falling 3.1 per cent (down $139.6 million) to $4.4 billion. This was primarily due to lower forestry products and building and packaging materials, which decreased 15.8 per cent year-over-year (down $173.9 million). Consumer goods exports also declined 11.8 per cent (down $45.5 million), while farm, fishing and intermediate food products exports decreased 13.5 per cent (down $37.4 million). These declines were slightly offset by higher exports of metal ores and non-metallic minerals, up 15 per cent (an increase of $61.1 million), and electronic and electrical equipment and parts exports, which increased 15.8 per cent (an increase of $43.1 million).
On a yearly basis, non-seasonally adjusted imports to B.C. declined 1.3 per cent (down $84.9 million) to reach $6.3 billion. Energy products imports posted the largest decline, down 55.5 per cent (down $175.7 million). Motor vehicles and parts imports also decreased 14.5 per cent (down $96.5 million), while aircraft and other transportation equipment and parts imports decreased 34.4 per cent (down $95.2 million). Conversely, consumer goods imports increased 16 per cent (up $266.6 million).
Bryan Yu is chief economist at Central 1.
