Powell River-Sunshine Coast confirmed its status as a provincial NDP stronghold this week when voters here re-elected incumbent Nicholas Simons to a fourth straight term as MLA.
Despite receiving more than half the vote, the popular incumbent’s total numbers dropped from 13,120 in 2013 to 11,846, while the Liberal vote dropped even more, from 7,792 to 5,717. The Greens, on the other hand, reflected the province-wide trend by almost doubling their support – from 2,856 to 5,629 – for a third-place finish that came within less than 100 votes of the Liberals.
For this riding and the other 86 in the province, what makes this election different from previous ones is that it’s unclear if our elected MLA will sit in opposition, or be part of a coalition government, or will be running again for re-election in a matter of perhaps months.
The election result is unsettled, to put it mildly, making post-mortems or predictions of any kind seem premature.
Two days after the historic vote, Christy Clark’s Liberals have a minority government with 43 seats. The NDP has 41 and the Greens have three, putting leader Andrew Weaver in the driver’s seat to prop up either party in a coalition-type government. But that can still change, and the final outcome might not be known until the second week of June, pending possible recounts.
The likeliest change scenario would see the NDP’s nine-vote margin in Courtenay-Comox reversed to favour the Liberals after absentee ballots are counted later this month. In that case, Clark would have only a technical majority of 44 seats; she would still likely need some co-operation from the Greens so that her MLAs can take sick days and bathroom breaks.
Weaver is being cagey about keeping his options open – as he should be at this stage – but his one dealbreaker, he said, is that any party he supports has to be prepared to eliminate big money from politics. Both the Greens and NDP have called for a ban on corporate and union donations, with caps on individual contributions, but Weaver scored major points during the televised leaders’ debate by hammering NDP leader John Horgan for continuing to accept “big money” while attacking the Liberals for the same practice. With major media outlets like the New York Times exposing B.C. as one of the most wide-open jurisdictions for party financing on the continent, Weaver definitely got some help from high places.
If this topsy-turvy election brings no other long-lasting result than banning big money from provincial politics, it will have served a vital purpose. We expect, however, the consequences will be more far-reaching.
In the meantime, we suggest the candidates keep their election signs handy.
