With Afghanistan falling, Delta rising and other trials and tribulations afflicting Canadians, the timing for a federal election couldn’t have been much worse.
National polls tell us the Liberals are hanging on to a thin lead and the Conservatives and NDP have made modest gains. But it’s the riding numbers that count on election night and that’s where the unexpected can make or break a party’s fortunes.
The polling aggregator 338Canada is currently labelling West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country as a “toss up” between the Liberals and Conservatives, but so many variables are missing from that calculation that it’s almost pointless to read anything into it. As just one example, how much weight is given to the fact that the NDP is running a “climate champion” of national prominence in the riding?
The term “climate champion” is taken directly from a Mainstreet Research poll released two days before the election call and sponsored by the climate activist group 350.org. The survey looked at “six possible swing ridings across the country,” and for some reason, our riding was one of them.
The focus of the poll was vote shifting; the press release said it found “at least one in three voters would consider switching their vote to another candidate or party in order to elect a climate champion in their riding.” It singled out this riding for special mention: “This swing potential was most apparent in West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country where 43 per cent of all voters would switch and nearly 48 per cent of Liberal voters would switch.”
The actual question was a mouthful and one could argue that it was tailored for a particular candidate and designed to achieve a particular effect: “Imagine if local polling showed that another climate champion other than your first choice had the best chance of winning. Would you be willing to change your vote in order to elect that climate champion, or would you stick with your current vote regardless?”
The survey was taken between July 25 and Aug. 6, so it’s old data now. The sample size for the riding was 624, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 per cent. For what it’s worth, the poll found the Conservatives to be leading in the riding at 27.5 per cent.
At best, an incomplete snapshot that’s no longer very relevant. At worst, a subtle attempt to steer your vote in a certain direction.
Best to treat polls like election candy – always brush, floss and rinse thoroughly after ingesting.
