We are an aging population with a goodly number of our homes owned by people who don't actually live here. These are the background facts to a highly-anticipated report on the future business environment on the Sunshine Coast commissioned by the Sunshine Coast Credit Union.
The report, released on Tuesday, Oct. 18, to 119 by-invitation movers and shakers on the Sunshine Coast, was part of the credit union's mandate to inform and engage their members and the community at large. Prepared and presented by Helmut Pastrick, chief economist at Central 1 Credit Union, the report is an in-depth look at where we can expect to be in 10 years.
Dovetailing nicely with the Vital Signs report released on Oct. 5, the report takes similar data (federal, provincial, local, real estate board and Landcor Data Corp. statistics) and projects their impact on the future. Sunshine Coast Community Foundation director Catharine Esson, prior to Pastrick's report, summarized Vital Signs, an endeavour of the Foundation.
Over and over in his report, Pastrick emphasized the impact of external factors on our growth. The present recession worldwide has resulted in a hesitant real estate market, a trend he sees loosening up in the last five years of the forecast.
"High MLS listings similar in other parts of B.C., a level in favour of buyers, suggest a downward pressure on house costs," Pastrick noted.
Sector by sector analysis of the economic segments of the Coast revealed that 2006 was a boon time in our area for some industries, led by a robust construction industry. In the five years between 2001 and 2006, the builders created about 1,700 jobs. Not surprisingly, in that same time, resource-based jobs shrank from 15 per cent to less than six per cent. So what about the future: where are we headed?
As with any future prediction, this one comes with a proviso - although it's based on the best stats available, it's still open to interpretation and the volatility of outside forces, facts Pastrick readily admits.
"One of the good things, at my age [approaching retirement], I won't have to be here to answer what went wrong," he joked to the appreciative audience.
Where our money comes from will likely not change in the near future. Right now, because of the age of our citizens, the largest sources of income are pensions, interest and government transfers. Pastrick remarked the one thing we can be sure of is everyone is getting older, which is predicted to result in over 50 per cent of our population being 55 or older by 2021. Right now, one in five is part of that demographic, so this is a sizable increase.
The report predicts that increases in the population of the Lower Mainland will spill over to the Sunshine Coast. Right now most off-Coast homeowners come from Metro Vancouver.
The breakdown shows a full 80 per cent of the property owners in the Sunshine Coast Regional District have a primary residence elsewhere.
In an interview after the presentation, Pastrick said the report could be used as a tool to develop a vision for the future. There is an opportunity to build on strengths and identify obstacles to economic growth.
He said that developing exports, products and services that we can market off-Coast is a key to a strong economy. He also stated that encouraging local substitutions will stimulate Coastal growth. Buy locally; invest in your area, he advised. And, he added, it's important to promote and market the Sunshine Coast as an enviable destination.
He sees a further 3,000 people employed on the Coast over the next 10 years.
Pastrick elaborated on some impacts our aging population could have on the local economy. With advancing age, the dependency ratio is skewed. There are more people not working, but still requiring the same or more services. It comes down to how many people are working to support the non-working, the under 40s compared to the 65-plus population.
"This is a situation playing out all over. In Japan the situation is even more serious than we are," Pastrick said.
He sees the high rate of external ownership as a mixed bag for the economy. On the one hand, outside owners use services, but don't spend their income here compared to permanent residents. And while some are eligible to vote in local elections, the level of participation in Coast life may be different than that of local citizens. On the other hand, external owners do bring in activity and money when they're here.
Pastrick sees technology as perhaps the biggest unknown in the future of the Coast's economy - new innovations, new inventions, new ways of doing business- could have an impact on the number of new businesses on the Coast.
In his presentation, Pastrick noted that well over 50 per cent of small businesses are one person only. This he doesn't see changing over the next 10 years.
Shelley McDade, Sunshine Coast Credit Union CEO, has had some time to digest the report. In an interview, she said the report indicates to her modest growth, something she'd like to see change. Regarding our older population, she said, we need careful and diligent planning around services and recreation. Echoing the Vital Signs findings, she said there would be a greater need for general housing and assisted-living units. Medical care and transportation issues will also create challenges for the economy.
For McDade, the most surprising issue of the report is the number of off-Coast homeowners.
"There is a different engagement level [in the community] than full-time residents have," McDade opined.
One of the challenges she sees to getting external residents more involved is communication; local residents are more likely to be apprised of Coast concerns.
Overall McDade sees the report as a planning tool for all levels of government, local organizations and businesses. One key she sees is attracting a new demographic to the Coast.
"I'd like to find a way to bring back all the kids who have left, to somehow create jobs and an environment for them to come back to. I'd like to encourage our youth to come back," McDade summarized.
A copy of Pastrick's report is available on the Sunshine Coast Credit Union website at www.sunshineccu.com for further information.
