CALGARY — More than 300 people in Alberta have fallen ill from measles since March and a group of doctors are warning the virus could grow exponentially in the coming weeks.
"We are kind of at the horses-are-out-of-the-barn stage," said Dr. Shelley Duggan, president of the Alberta Medical Association.
The Alberta government reported 16 new measles cases Thursday, bringing the province's total count to 313. The government has not reported any deaths and, as of Monday, three people were receiving intensive care.
Rising case numbers have prompted the AMA to warn of an outbreak that could quickly reach the thousands.
"You can start to see, if you just do the math, ... how this could become 1,000 cases in a week or two," Duggan said.
Dr. James Talbot, Alberta's former chief medical officer of health, says cases are likely much higher than reported and that for every 1,000 cases, one to three people will likely die. He said more will experience life-altering effects such as deafness and issues with brain development.
Measles can remain contagious in a room for up to two hours, he said, making it possible for a single person with the virus to pass it to well over a dozen people at once.
"We had an opportunity to make a difference earlier on," Talbot said.
"We're in a situation now where those opportunities have passed and we're starting to see an increase, a significant increase, in the disease."
Provincial data shows 68 per cent of Albertans have received two doses of the vaccine that protects against measles. In the south zone, where a majority of cases have been traced, 55 per cent of people are covered.
A similar number of people in northern Alberta have received both doses.
Those low vaccination rates and the measles' high level of contagion will make it challenging to stop the virus from spreading, Duggan said.
"I don't think it takes someone with a PhD in math to really think about the numbers."
After doctors called for a clampdown on the outbreak, Health Minister Adriana LaGrange announced Monday the government was launching an awareness campaign with a straightforward message: Don't get measles, get immunized.
Duggan said she and fellow doctors are pleased the government is speaking up about measles.
"They understand things are perilous right now."
LaGrange told reporters Thursday that Alberta’s campaign is already working, with measles immunizations rising more than 60 per cent compared with the same time last year. She said the province has been monitoring measles since the first case was detected.
Alberta NDP health critic Sarah Hoffman said the province's efforts have come too late. "The government waited until we saw three children in the intensive care unit before they started to raise any alarms," she said.
Talbot said vaccinating such a large portion of the province requires efforts similar to those seen during the COVID-19 pandemic. If everyone who wanted the vaccine got it over the next two weeks, he said, case numbers may begin to plateau.
"I don't know that that's humanly possible to do it that fast," Talbot said.
"Is it too late to do something? The answer is no. This is exactly the kind of thing that needs to be done, and the better we do it, the sooner we can bring this under control."
— With files from Lisa Johnson in Edmonton.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published May 8, 2025.
Matthew Scace, The Canadian Press
