Crucial recounts and a final tally including absentee ballots could sway the seat count political leaders have to work with heading back to the Legislature. In the meantime, British Columbians have been coming to grips with the possibility that the province could see its first minority government since the 1950s.
After the initial vote count on May 9, the Liberals had 43 seats, the NDP had 41 and the Greens 3.
Lt.-Gov. Judith Guichon has asked Liberal leader Christy Clark to put together a government and see if she can hold the confidence of the Legislature. Clark, NDP leader John Horgan, and Andrew Weaver of the Greens have been huddled with advisors and talking with each other about what comes next.
Nicholas Simons of the NDP, whose margin of victory May 9 ensures he will be MLA for Powell River-Sunshine Coast after the final count, told Coast Reporter this week that rank-and-file MLAs haven’t been part of those discussions.
“We’re all waiting to see what happens,” Simons said. “There’s not much we can do about it in the meantime except continue to act as MLAs, which is our responsibility. It’s really a bit of a holding pattern.”
Simons said the day-to-day business of representing the riding continues, and his constituency offices are open and staffed for anyone who needs assistance.
Capilano University political studies professor Tim Schouls said because minority governments are so rare in B.C., they’re not part of the political culture and some voters could be feeling a bit of “buyer’s remorse” as they watch the manoeuvring of the party leaders.
“Traditionally in British Columbian politics we are, quite happily, quite polarized between what used to be the Social Credit and now the Liberals and the NDP.”
A recent poll from Mainstreet Research found that 58 per cent of respondents wanted the Greens to offer support vote-by-vote rather than entering a formal coalition with either of the main parties (the poll had a margin of error of +/- 2.41 percentage points, 19 times out of 20).
Schouls said he thinks the commonalities between the parties that kept recent federal minority governments relatively stable don’t exist between B.C.’s main parties.
“The positions seem to me to be fairly entrenched, and consequently I don’t see the kind of generosity and openness and kind of opportunity to work on a sector-by-sector or policy-by-policy basis to be one that either of the [main] parties is all that good at,” he said. “The nature of politics as conducted over the last 16 years has been highly adversarial and highly contentious.”
He also thinks if a formal coalition emerges out of all this, an NDP/Green union is the most likely. “I think that’s a much more viable one, just from the perspective of policy and ideology and priorities, and I think it’s one both of the parties could survive if they govern well for, let’s say, two or three years.”
According to Schouls, if a combined Green/NDP vote brings down a Liberal government early in the four-year term, it’s likely the lieutenant-governor will ask the NDP to try to form government rather than call for a new election.
Simons said while the NDP caucus isn’t making specific plans, they’re ready for any possible outcome, including being in government.
“It’s fair to say every person who was elected is wondering what their role will be… [we have to] anticipate and plan for every possibility… One way or another people realize it’s a slim victory or loss and many people suggest the chances of us going for a full four years [before an election] may not be as likely.”
