Okay B.C., close your eyes and take a deep breath. Hold for the count of 10. Now, slowly exhale. Open your eyes. Do you see a provincial government yet? Don’t blink, it might not last.
Even though the numbers from the Elections BC final count show the same result we saw May 9, a Liberal minority of 43 seats with the NDP at 41 and the Greens at three, there’s still a possibility of judicial recounts.
Even though we’ve had a couple of weeks to get used to the idea, the possibility of a minority government seems to have a lot of British Columbians kind of freaked out.
I spent a good chunk of my career in the politically charged atmosphere of Ottawa, and working in the media in a capital city you get used to politics, so I’m often surprised when politics surprises people.
Minority governments, and the political machinations that come with them, are fairly routine federally and in other provinces, but as Cap-U political studies prof Tim Schouls reminded us last week, they aren’t part of the political culture of B.C.
They are, however, excellent fodder for newspaper columns.
As a witness to the political dynamics of the Miller-Peterson-Rae years in Ontario, I won’t be the least bit surprised to see the next couple of years of B.C. politics follow the same arc.
In 1985, after a long run in power the Progressive Conservatives were reduced to a minority government under new leader Frank Miller, with David Peterson’s Liberals just two seats back and the NDP of Bob Rae holding the balance of power.
Peterson and Rae signed an accord to govern as a coalition and about a month and a half after the election they brought down the PCs in a confidence vote and the lieutenant-governor asked Peterson to form a government. The accord bound the NDP and Liberals for two years, and in 1987 there was another election. This time voters returned a Liberal majority.
If B.C.’s Liberal minority should fall on a confidence vote, Lt.-Gov. Judith Guichon has a choice: a new election, or asking NDP leader John Horgan to try to form a government.
Although a post-election poll suggested voters would prefer a minority government earn support from other parties vote-by-vote, I think a formal coalition would give Guichon more justification for turning to a different party to govern instead of holding a new election. And I think that increases the odds of an NDP-Green pact, despite some animosity during
the campaign.
It’s to the Greens’ benefit to have a year or two to get some policy wins they can campaign on. It’s also a safe bet campaign-weary voters would punish the party if they felt it was responsible for sending them back to the polls too early.
As well as welcoming a chance to build a record as government, the NDP is probably eager to have time to re-fill their coffers before hitting the campaign trail again.
Which brings me to why I think a Liberal-Green coalition is the least likely outcome right now. With lots of silver left in their war chest, the Liberals are probably ready to head back to the polls on short notice, which might make them unwilling to bend too far to secure Green support.
