We’re an area with a population substantially older than the provincial norm with a great reliance on non-employment income and small business and just how those facts translate to the present and future economy of the Sunshine Coast was the meat of a report commissioned by the Sunshine Coast Credit Union.
The analysis prepared and delivered by Helmut Pastrick, chief economist of Central 1 Credit Union, was heard by about 180 people at the Raven’s Cry Theatre in Sechelt on Oct. 21.
As was the case in 2011 when Pastrick made his last presentation on the Coast’s economy, Tuesday’s presentation was preceded by a summary of this year’s Vital Signs report, which set the stage for the economist’s observations.
Vital Signs co-manager Catharine Esson drew the audience’s attention to some of the key indicators in the report. Namely that our population is one of the oldest in B.C., concern about the economy is the number one worry on the Coast and that we have a high satisfaction with the arts and culture in the area.
Both speakers expressed regret at the reply rate of the voluntary National Household Survey that replaced the long-form Canada Census report. The Sunshine Coast had a particularly low rate of response, which could affect population composition, employment and income numbers.
Both Pastrick and Esson pointed out that our population growth on the Coast has bottomed out and is actually decreasing slightly. There is a net outflow to both Alberta and Saskatchewan seemingly because of their hot economies versus B.C. This is a B.C. wide trend with the exception of the Lower Mainland and northeastern part of the province. The primary loss is young adults and teens who may be leaving for education or employment opportunities and not coming back.
“Interprovincial and intra-provincial migration speaks to the economic draw of other areas compared to (the Sunshine Coast),” Pastrick said.
As our increasingly global economy necessitates Pastrick began his report with a macro overview of the world (in particular the United States and China) and Canadian economies. The 2009 recession hit the U.S. hard. As Canada’s number one trading partner the trickle-down effect on our economy was harsh. Sectors such as the softwood lumber industry particularly felt the sting of both trade restrictions and the lack of new construction in America. Indications are the U.S. economy is improving. And although the stronger American dollar isn’t good news for travellers or importers for the rest of our economy it’s great news.
Pastrick cautioned people not to draw the inference that there are a lot of residences sitting empty in our area because of our high rate of off-Coast ownership, 59 per cent as of 2010. The owners, a full 83 per cent of them, are primarily from the Lower Mainland. This can be a positive factor if, as Pastrick expects, the economy improves in the next few years and more disposable income is available in the Lower Mainland, one of the B.C. economic hot spots. This could translate into an upswing in the real estate market.
“The present sale price has flat-lined around $350,000, the same over most of B.C.,” he said.
Pastrick said the economy is less driven by resources and manufacturing with more service-oriented businesses, government transfers and investment capital providing income on the Coast. Although the forest sector appeared to contradict that trend with one graph showing the 2013 timber harvest at about 2.25 million cubic metres, which is above the average level.
Overall Pastrick expects a slow but steady level of growth in our economy over the next 10 years or so.
“B.C. economy is in a moderate growth phase; there will be more robust growth after 2016,” he summarized.
In an interview after the presentation Pastrick expanded on what he sees is the impact of our older population.
“The 25 to 55 age group are consumers. The 55 and above age group typically have no debt, lots of savings and assets. The (older people) require services, care services and health services. However we see more active seniors. The 75 year old of today is not the 75 year old of 10 years ago. They will be healthier,” he said.
Pastrick also said that there may be a movement in Canada to rural areas which bodes well for us.
“The more people living here, the more people paying property taxes here, the better for the Coast,” he said.
